Repeating Trends?

Jordan Richardson

December 16, 2007
 It is interesting to note the trends that continue to play themselves out in our electoral politics. A couple of years ago, when Bush was running for his second term, the Democrats were scrambling to find a candidate who could beat him. Their task was to discover someone who had the credentials to combat Bush’s then successful handling of the war on terror, but one who also captured the hearts of the voters.

One of the first choices, thought likely to win the primary, was the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO, Wesley Clark. He, however, lost touch with his voters as the focus shifted to Howard Dean and his radical brand of liberalism.
Dean, unlike the majority of the Democrats at the time, called for troop pullouts and deadlines. He sparked an internet surge that reaped him millions of dollars in campaign contributions, and the support of the far-left wing. It was one ear-paining screech, however, that caused him to quickly lose support, until his eventual withdrawal from the race.

With election quickly closing in, Democrats became desperate to find “the candidate” to beat Bush. They chose John Kerry for this task. It was obvious among the Democrat voters that Kerry was not their first choice, and they had no real reason to vote for him, other than to make sure Bush lost. This apathetic attitude towards Kerry cost him support, not to mention the White House.

Let’s skip forward to September. Fred Thompson, after incredible standings in national polls as a non-candidate, decides to officially announce his bid for president. Often touted as the “true conservative,” he garnered massive support from the conservative media and followers. His first appearance in a debate, however, portrayed him as lackluster, and frankly boring. His numbers stayed steady for a while, and then began their descent to a low 13 percent of the vote.

Now our timeline arrives to this week. Mike Huckabee leads in the Iowa primary and is trailing Rudy Giuliani in the national polls, 19-24. Huckabee has united a lot the Christian voters to favor him over the “suspicious” Mitt Romney and his brand of Mormon faith. Huckabee was in the lower levels of the polls, but amazingly rose to a first-tier status, seemingly overnight.

What is going on?

If patterns tend to repeat themselves, the question is who the GOP’s Dean is: Thompson or Huckabee. Moreover, if comparison of candidates is even a valid assumption, what does it say about the eventual nominee for the GOP? Will it be a Kerry-like figure that is voted for simply because he is touted to be “the candidate” to beat Hillary Clinton? Is that who Rudy Giuliani is, or is there more to the story?

Certainly, there is much that can change over the following months, but given the way that trends have led us, is a Clinton White House what we are to look forward to, as we lack a united party?

It is something to ponder.